The enterprise friction point
Unilever allocated $28M annually to retail trade promotions and scan-down discounts, but over 45% of discount events generated negative incremental returns, merely subsidizing baseline shoppers. Simultaneously, promotional demand surges triggered 9.2% on-shelf stockouts during key sales weekends.
Transformation objectives
- Ingest retailer POS scanner data, distributor EDI 852 feeds, and ERP TPM ledgers.
- Isolate true incremental promotional sales lift from organic baseline sales using causal AI.
- Deliver automated trade spend simulation and stockout prevention alerts to commercial teams.
Discovery & architectural audit
Econometric analysis revealed that deep discount promotions on large-pack SKUs cannibalized high-margin single-unit sales without bringing new shoppers to the category, resulting in net negative promotional ROI.
The Fortiv AI architecture
- 01
Nielsen & Circana Syndicated POS Ingestion Connectors: Ingests weekly scanner data, pricing depths, and display feature flags across 12,000 retail stores.
- 02
Causal Machine Learning & Price Elasticity Engines: Isolates true incremental sales lift while controlling for seasonality, advertising, and competitor discounts.
- 03
SAP Trade Management & TPM Data Bridges: Synchronizes verified promotional performance with ERP commercial spending ledgers.
- 04
Interactive Account Manager Deal Simulation Workbench: Provides account managers with real-time promotion ROI simulations and optimal discount depths.
Verified audit outcomes
Post-deployment impact
- +15.4% Promo ROI
- Return on commercial trade promotion expenditures increased across top brand lines
- $2.1M Reallocated
- In unprofitable trade discounts reallocated to high-growth, high-margin product categories
- -44% Retail Stockouts
- On-shelf stockouts reduced during high-volume promotional sales events
- 5 Min Simulations
- Joint Business Planning scenario modeling compressed from 2 weeks of manual analysis
Architectural lessons learned
Isolating baseline volume allows account executives to negotiate discount depths with major retailers with complete confidence.
High-frequency demand sensing connects commercial promotions directly with factory production scheduling.
Future scale roadmap
Integrating digital e-commerce retail media ad spend into the physical store trade ROI model.
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